Where Should Josh Sargent Transfer?
Using Data To See Where He Could Best Fit
Werder Bremen has just been relegated to the 2.Bundesliga for the first time in 40 years on the final match day after falling 4–2 to Borussia Moenchengladbach. Overall this has been a frustrating season especially for Bremen/USMNT striker Josh Sargent. With the USMNT striker pool growing in strength with players like Daryl Dike, Jordan Siebatcehau, and Matthew Hoppe, I believe it is time for Sargent to join a team where he’ll have better delivery and goal scoring opportunities.
Werder Bremen for most games this season were on the back foot defending and Sargent was consistently asked to drop back in order to help out. Against
strikers from the top 5 leagues he ranks in the 90th+ percentile for many defensive stats. It’s impressive, but I think many USMNT supporters want to see him grow as a goalscorer. With Bremen this season, he knew
how to test the keeper when he got a shot on target, but he consistently got low xG shot opportunities. ⅘ goals this season were from medium to high xG shots and this helped him pace close to his accumulated xG stat(5.82 xG). Sargent definitely has many areas in which he can improve , but given more medium to high xG opportunities, I believe he has the potential to be a dominant goal scorer. I believe he could be a prolific goalscorer in the 2.Bundesliga, but the bar for where USMNT starters currently play has risen over the past 2–3 years with players like Adams, Pulisic, McKennie, Dest, and many more plying their trade with elite European clubs. If Sargent wants to hit his ceiling, he needs to take the next step to play at the highest level. According to this article by Rob Ursy on starsandstripesfc.com, Bremen is open to selling Sargent and he prefers to stay in Germany with a team higher up the table. Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Monchengladbach, VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen have expressed interest in him so far. I’m sure more clubs will later join the race to sign him, but let’s take a data-driven approach into assessing which one of these clubs would be the best fit for him.
For this analysis, here are the key factors I’ll be looking at to determine where Sargent could find the most success.
- Playing Style and Competition
- Increase in Goal Scoring Chances
- Growth Opportunities/State of the Clubs
Playing Style and Competition
The one commonality between all of these teams is that they usually play with a single striker up top. Frankfurt plays with 2 strikers in a 3–4–1–2 a little under 50% of the time. With Bremen, Sargent was deployed in a variety of formations like the 3–4–2–1, 3–5–2, and 4–3–3 so there shouldn’t be too much of a learning curve for him from a positional standpoint. Looking at each team’s striking options and the % of minutes played,Frankfurt would be the toughest team to break into. In a 3–4–2–1, Andre Silva is the clear starter and had a dominating season with 35 goals+assists. Luka Jovic or Bas Dost filled in as the second striker when the team played in a 3–4–1–2. Whether Jovic moves to Frankfurt permanently from Real Madrid is still a mystery, but I think Sargent could challenge for the #2 spot under Silva. Stuttgart is similar where Kalajdzic is the lock down starter and notched 21 goals+assists this season. Stuttgart likes to play quickly on the ground and Kalajdzic acts as a target man in the offense. He knows how to use his strength and spatial awareness to create chances for himself and his teammates. Sargent has similar abilities when it comes to his physicality and robustness on the ball. Both are young strikers with tons of potential;Sargent would definitely have to fight for this spot, but I think he’d have a better chance of overtaking Kalajdzic than Andre Silva at this point in time. Gladbach’s attacking situation is interesting because they sometimes play their wingers and attacking midfielders at striker, specifically players like Stindl and Thuram who have both enjoyed solid goal scoring seasons. Plea is the starting #9 on the team, but doesn’t play an overwhelming majority of the minutes because he is subbed out often. Sargent matches Plea pretty well in the physicality department, however getting behind the defensive line and making runs with urgency is where Sargent falls short. Gladbach’s attack is filled with pace, so if Sargent can keep up with the tempo, he can find success here. At Leverkusen, Sargent would be competing with Alario and Schick, both of whom combined for 20 goals this season. Ex BSC Young Boys manager, Gerardo Seoane, will be the new Leverkusen boss next season. In Switzerland, he deployed 2 strikers, one that can win and hold up the ball and the other that can be deadly in the box. Sargent has shown glimpses that he can perform the responsibilities of both roles and could thrive in this type of system.
Increase in Goal Scoring Chances
It is no secret that Bremen this season was atrocious at creating goal-scoring opportunities. Bremen finished the season almost tied for the 2nd lowest npxG+xA/90 this season. For Sargent to grow as a goalscorer, he’ll need more and better delivery from the players around him.
Above I have plotted 2 graphs that assess the chance creation and penalty area penetration capabilities of outfielders in the Bundesliga this season. Color coded every player that belonged to one of the four teams we are assessing so we can identify clusters. In these graphs, I’m mainly looking at players with above average stats in the top right quadrant. In both charts, Filip Kostic of Frankfurt delivers the ball into the box and creates shooting opportunities at a high volume/90 min. Both Kamada and Kostic were the main shot creators of the team and combined finished with 26 assists helping Andre Silva finish 2nd in goals scored. The cluster I want to bring attention to is in the rectangle in the GCAxSCA plot. As you can see, they aren’t among the most elite chance creators like Kostic, but there is a significant amount of players from both Leverkusen and Gladbach. In the left plot, Leverkusen has 3 players(Bailey, Diaby, and Demirbay) that are above average at delivering the ball into the box. I do think Sargent can benefit from having multiple players around him that have the ability to set him up because it gives him more outlets. Having one elite outlet like Kostic is advantageous, but if he is having an off day then Sargent would likely be ineffective.
Growth Opportunities/State of the Clubs
The upside of all 4 of these teams is that they are all very competitive in the top half of the table. Frankfurt and Leverkusen secured Europa League qualification, and they’d give Sargent the opportunity to play in Europe for the first time. Their schedules would be more congested so there would be more squad rotation, which would give Sargent more opportunities to establish himself. Leverkusen and Gladbach hiring new managers would give Sargent less barriers in terms of breaking into the lineup. This is because everyone on that squad for the most part will have a clean slate and will have to prove themselves under new management. If he goes to Leverkusen or Gladbach, with just a few good impressions early on, he could be closer to the top of the depth chart. Leverkusen started the previous season really well considering that they lost two key players in Volland and Havertz. At the Christmas Break they were in second place, but once the season resumed, performance dipped and they finished the season outside of UCL qualification. Leverkusen has tons of potential overall and I think Sargent can help them be more consistent throughout the entire season. Stuttgart after being promoted 2 years ago have enjoyed a really stellar season. American manager Pellegrino Mattarazzo has built up a decent side and is hoping that he can continue this momentum into next season. Stuttgart doesn’t have any marquee superstars, but Sargent could become that for them and help Stuttgart establish themselves as a top half of the table team for seasons to come. On a side note,I know that many USMNT fans would also love to see an American manager coaching a national team player similar to midfielder Brenden Aaaronson and Jesse Marsch at RB Salzburg.
Final Verdict
It is very possible that Sargent doesn’t end up at any of these clubs, I’m sure more teams will show interest in him as the transfer season starts up. If he doesn’t end up at one of these 4 teams I hope this analysis can provide some background into what type of team and set up he would most likely thrive in. Based on the analysis, I believe that Bayer Leverkusen would be the best landing spot for him. They’ll be in Europe which is a great experience for any young player. He’ll have the opportunity to compete with and learn from Alario and Schick who are both very experienced European strikers. Seoane coming in as a new manager and the potential of him implementing a 2 striker system would give Sargent more opportunities to prove himself. Sargent would have young promising creators like Diaby and Bailey there to help him score goals. This summer’s national team games will give Sargent an opportunity to boost his stock and many USMNT fans are counting on him to be our main goalscorer. This transfer is not only crucial for Sargent’s career, but it’ll have a huge impact on what the USMNT front line looks like going forward. Excited to see how this transfer season plays out!
Feedback and shares appreciated!
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